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Warrnambool Line Upgrade
Weekend Interim VL Running – Service Plan Options
Feb 2024
DRAFT FOR INTERNAL DISCUSSION
Weekend Warrnambool Service Options | 8 February 2024
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Background
• The Warrnambool Line Upgrade 2 (WLU2) project has been delayed from
initial expected delivery dates
• There are several key dates for various stages of project and rolling stock
delivery, with each change enabling various outcomes
• Post-fare cap, patronage on the corridor has significantly increased
• Running existing weekend services as 3VL results in a significant drop
in seat numbers
• Additional weekend services should be run when VLs are introduced to
the corridor, to avoid a large net capacity loss
• These slides detail the latest options for weekend running, as well as a
recommendation for interim weekend service plans
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Commissioning Events and Changes
All WLU2 Crossings Risk
Addressed –
VLs can run
Stabling
on the corridor
Commissioning
Approx. October / Q4 2024
Late 2025 or beyond
September 2024
GeLU2 commissioning:
• Weekday Waurn
Ponds extensions
• Weekends 20’
Waurn Ponds
From Now until completion of
When level crossings are
When Stabling is
WLU2 level crossings, we
can’t
complete, we can run
select
complete, we can run
run VLs on the corridor
services as VL, depending on
all services as VL,
VL unit availability, OPEX
provided we have
funding and capacity needs
sufficient units available
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1600 seats
-548 less than Current
+610 more than End State (5x 3VLs)
Interim VL Running – 3TPD Mixed Fleet
Running Mixed Fleet with the
current level of service results in
the 2nd Up and Down being
significantly overcrowded
As per current
weekend
timings
CF
VL
VL
VL
VL
CF
Expected demand:
Met by Rolling Stock
Not met by Rolling Stock
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2042 seats
-106 less than Current
+168 when in End State (5x 3VLs)
Interim VL Running – 4TPD Mixed Fleet
Additional
Down/Up 3VL
pair (4th service)
CF
VL
VL
VL
VL
VL
VL
CF
Expected demand:
Met by Rolling Stock
Likely met by Rolling Stock
with reservations in place
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2758 seats
+610 more than Current
-548 less than End State (5x 3VLs)
Interim VL Running – 5TPD Mixed Fleet
First two Ups and
last two Downs must
run as loco-hauled
until stabling is
complete
CF
CF
VL
VL
VL
VL
VL
VL
CF
CF
Earlier first Up
8862 moved
Second last
service (5th Up)
later to create
Down is the 5th
even gaps
service
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Capacity Summary
Services
# Seats
Change from Change to
Total
current (- =
End State
Maximum
less)
(5x 3VLs)
PAX
Current
6xCF
2,148
-
+62
Sat: 1,531
Sun: 1,686
3TPD
2xCF,
1,600
-548
+610
Sat: 1,531
Mixed
4x3VL
Sun: 1,686
4TPD
2xCF,
2,042
-106
+168
Sat: 1,531
Mixed
6x3VL
Sun: 1,686
5TPD
4xCF,
2,758
+610
-548
Sat: 1,531
Mixed
6x3VL
Sun: 1,686
End State
10x3VL
2,210
-62
-
Sat: 1,531
Sun: 1,686
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Patronage Analysis
•
An analysis of potential distribution of passengers to a 4th weekend service has been
undertaken
•
This assumes:
•
Existing passenger numbers, i.e.
no growth or induced demand
•
Only passengers between Waurn Ponds and Warrnambool
•
This will be further enforced by a reservation system
•
The findings suggest that with a 4th service, most services run below the capacity of a
3VL, however if passengers don’t change from their preferred service select services
may exceed 3VL capacity
•
This can be mitigated via the use of a reservation system
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Patronage Analysis – Saturday –
Maximum Pax
Additional Down
Additional Up
VL
VL
VL
CF
CF
VL
VL
VL
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Patronage Analysis – Sunday –
Maximum Pax
Additional Down
Additional Up
VL
VL
VL
CF
CF
VL
VL
VL
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Option Pros and Cons
Pros
Cons
3TPD
•
Able to retire 1xN-Set
•
Does not provide enough seats to
Mixed
•
CF Fleet KM Reduction
cover existing Sunday maximum
•
Consistent with weekdays
patronage
4TPD
•
Able to retire 1xN-Set
•
Additional funding and crewing
Mixed
•
CF Fleet KM Reduction
required early
•
Consistent with weekdays
•
Drop in seat #’s (-106) in the interim,
•
Provides enough seats overall to
however this drop is on lower
cover existing patronage
patroned services
•
There are more seats during the
busier afternoon periods, with the
additional services
•
Some passengers may be required to
take a less desirable service
5TPD
•
Able to retire 1xN-Set
•
Additional funding and crewing
Mixed
•
CF Fleet KM Reduction
required early
•
Consistent with weekdays
•
Significant drop in seat #’s to the end
•
Significant increase in capacity early
state (5x3VL returns)
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Key Risks
•
Level crossing / occupation crossing work must be complete before VL units can be run
on the corridor
•
Waiting until stabling is complete to introduce additional weekend Warrnambool services
we result in no change in current service offering until Late 2025
at the earliest
•
If a seat reservation system is not introduced at the same time, there is a risk that the
3VL units may be overcrowded
•
If an additional service creates significant induced demand, there may not be enough
seats to cover the increased patronage
•
This risk will be mitigated by the implementation of a reservation system
•
Reservation system may impact the workload of conductors
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