Claims assumptions by month (October 2022 to December 2026)
Table 1. Claims assumptions for MRCA, DRCA and VEA, October 2022 to December 2026
Claim Activity Group
Claim Activity
31/10/2022
30/11/2022
31/12/2022
31/01/2023
28/02/2023
31/03/2023
30/04/2023
31/05/2023
30/06/2023
31/07/2023
31/08/2023
30/09/2023
31/10/2023
30/11/2023
31/12/2023
31/01/2024
29/02/2024
31/03/2024
30/04/2024
31/05/2024
30/06/2024
31/07/2024
31/08/2024
30/09/2024
31/10/2024
30/11/2024
31/12/2024
31/01/2025
28/02/2025
31/03/2025
30/04/2025
31/05/2025
30/06/2025
31/07/2025
31/08/2025
30/09/2025
31/10/2025
30/11/2025
31/12/2025
31/01/2026
28/02/2026
31/03/2026
30/04/2026
31/05/2026
30/06/2026
31/07/2026
31/08/2026
30/09/2026
31/10/2026
30/11/2026
31/12/2026
Initial Liability
Initial Liability (Injury/Disease) - DRCA^
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
981
Initial Liability
Initial Liability (Injury/Disease) - MRCA^
2,
502
2,
502
2,
502
2,
502
2,
502
2,
502
2,
502
2,
502
2,
502
2,
502
2,
502
2,
502
2,
502
2,
502
2,
502
2,
502
2,
502
2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502 2,
502
Initial Liability
Initial Liability (Death) - DRCA
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Initial Liability
Initial Liability (Death) - MRCA
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Permanent Impairment
DRCA Permanent Impairment*
1,
241
1,
241
1,
257
1,
297
1,
341
1,
476
1,
615
1,
668
1,
922
2,
294
2,
408
2,
615
3,
089
1,
896
1,
896
1,
896
1,
896
1,
896 1,
896 1,
896 1,
896 1,
896 1,
502 1,
502 1,
502 1,
502 1,
502 1,
502 1,
502 1,
502 1,
502 1,
502 1,
502 1,
502 1,
517 1,
517 1,
517 1,
517 1,
517 1,
517 1,
517 1,
517 1,
517 1,
517 1,
517 1,
517 1,
533 1,
533 1,
533 1,
488 1,
462
Permanent Impairment
MRCA Permanent Impairment*
1,
174
1,
180
1,
257
1,
340
1,
448
1,
614
1,
725
1,
946
2,
337
2,
450
2,
687
3,
141
3,
217
2,
981
2,
981
2,
166
1,
214
1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214 1,
214
VEA Compensation
Disability Compensation Payment (Application for Increase)
154
154
153
153
153
153
152
152
152
152
151
151
151
150
150
150
150
149
149
149
149
148
148
148
148
147
147
147
147
147
146
146
146
146
146
145
145
145
145
144
144
144
144
143
143
143
143
143
142
142
142
VEA Compensation
Disability Compensation Payment (New claims)^
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
631
VEA Compensation
War Widows & Orphan Pension
51
50
50
49
49
49
48
48
47
47
46
46
46
45
45
44
44
44
43
43
43
42
42
41
41
41
40
40
40
39
39
39
38
38
38
37
37
37
36
36
36
35
35
35
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
VEA Income Support
VEA Income Support - New Claims
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
912
Source: Demand Driven Funding Model, updated using June 2022 data
^From mid-2022, DVA has adopted automatic bundling to combine multiple injuries into one claim, and hence Initial Liability claim lodgements have reduced significantly compared to previously where it was one injury per claim.
*Permanent Impairment claims require an accepted Initial Liability claim, and thus are conditional on the number of Initial Liability claims completed.
Caveats:
Note 1: Other than Permanent Impairment (PI) claim lodgement being conditional on Initial Liability (IL) claim acceptance, the demand assumptions underlying the Demand Driven Funding Model (DDFM) are developed using historical trends.
Note 2: The DDFM is not designed to predict claims, and the number provided are the demand assumptions used as inputs into the DDFM. As DVA does not have a sophisticated claims forecasting model, simple extrapolation of historical trends was used to set these assumptions.
Note 3: MRCA/DRCA IL and Disability Compensation Payment (new claims) are largely impacted by automatic bundling (starting mid-2022). As the historical trends for these are broadly stable after adjusting for automatic bundling, a flat-line was used to extrapolate future demand.
Number of Veterans Expected to Pass Away in Each Financial Year (FY2018 to FY2027)
Table 2. Number of veterans that have ever served in the ADF ful -time or as reservists estimated to pass away in each financial year, FY2017-27
Estimated deaths for each financial year (Al figures in this table are estimates, even for historical years)
Category
FY2018
FY2019
FY2020
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
FY2026
FY2027
Total Estimated Veteran Deaths in each year
16,
700 16,
400 16,
200 16,
100 16,
000 16,
000 16,
000 16,
000 15,
900 15,
800
Source: Veteran Population Model (VPM, 2018 version)
Caveats:
Note 1: DVA general y only has robust data on its client population, noting that not al veterans have interacted with the department.
Note 2: The Veteran Population Model (VPM) is an approximate model maintained by DVA, which is used to estimate the population of al living veterans that have ever served in the ADF either full-time or as reservists, and therefore includes basic projections of the number of new recruits and deaths in each year.
Note 3: The VPM obtains its approximate base population from a wide range of publications and other data sources, such as Defence and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Note 4: The model applies various basic assumptions to project the population of veterans over time, including high-level estimates of future recruitment and mortality rates.
Note 5: Please note that Table 2 does not contain any true historical counts of actual deaths in the overal veteran population, but uses estimates from the VPM for each year (even for historical years).
Note 6: Estimates of total deaths in each financial year have been rounded to the nearest 100.
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