NARCliM Tables And Figures.pdf

1
Bullet Points
Throughout we call the period 2060-2080 the far future (FF), the period 2020-2040 the near
future (NF) and the period 1990-2010 the near past (NP).
Figure 1
• Consumption forecasts are higher in the FF, than in the NF which are higher than those
in the NP.
• Runs for the same Global Climate Model (GCM) from the same period have similar con-
sumption forecasts.
• Some differences between consumption forecasts from different GCMs.
• The single dwelling Q2 forecast range is higher than the single dwelling annual forecast
range which in turn is higher than the all segments annual forecast range.
• The single dwelling Q2 median increases are higher than the single dwelling annual median
increases which are higher than the all segments annual median increases.
• The GCM with the highest NF range (CCCMA) has the lowest FF range.
Figure 2
• Total annual consumption forecasts increase with financial year due to population increase.
• The increase in median consumption from 2014/15 to 2024/25 due to population increase
is 50.5GL (NP), 51.9GL (NF) and 53GL (FF).
• The increase in median consumption from the NP to the NF due to climate is in the range
14.1GL (2014/15) to 16.6GL (2024/25) and is equal to approximately 3 years of increase
in median consumption due to population.
• Increase in NP median consumption over 11 years is approximately equal to the range of
consumption forecasts for a single year and all models.
Figure 3
• In the NP climate, the no singles (NS) forecasts, the current mixture (CM) forecasts and
the all singles (AS) forecasts have similar median values.
• In the FF climate, the median AS forecasts greater than the median CM forecasts which
are greater than the median NS forecasts.
• For all climates, the range of AS forecasts is greater than the range of CM forecasts, which
in turn is greater than the range of NS forecasts.
Figure 4
• Consumption forecasts are higher in the FF, than in the NF which are in turn higher than
those in the NP.
• The unit consumption range is less than the single dwelling consumption range.
• The mean and range of the Q1 and Q4 forecasts are less than the mean and range of the
Q2 and Q3 forecasts.
1

• The Q2 mean is greater than the Q3 mean
• The Q3 range is greater than the Q2 range
• The range in the FF is generally higher than the range in the NF which in turn is generally
higher than the range in the NP.
Figure 5
• There is a clear trend from PR to NF to FF in TMAX and GT30C.
• The presence of a trend in PRE and GT2MM is much less clear, though FF PRE and FF
GT2MM are generally higher than NF PRE and NF GT2MM respectively.
• Runs from a particular period and GCM have similar statistics for all weather variables.
• In the NP, weather variables from all runs and GCMs have almost identical means due to
the bias correction process, but there are some differences between the standard deviations.
• GCMs with low weather variable standard deviations tend to have low consumption fore-
cast ranges. For example NP (CSIRO), NF (CSIRO) and FF (CCCMA).
• The change in the mean of a weather variable from NP to NF is generally a poor predictor
of the change in the mean of that weather variable from NF to FF. For example, CSIRO
PRE decreases NP to NF by 50-100 mm and increases a bit less than that NF to FF.
Whereas ECHAM PRE in almost unchanged NP to NF yet increases by about 100mm NF
to FF and the CSIRO PRE increase by 50-100mm NP to NF and in almost unchanged
NF to FF.
• This is also true for the standard deviation of weather variables. The standard deviation
of CCCMA TMAX increases from NP to NF by about 0.1 and decrease from NF to FF by
about 0.2. Whereas, the standard deviation of CSIRO TMAX is almost unchanged from
NP to NF but increases by 0.2 from NF to FF.
2
Other Material
Chapter 3 of [?] contains a study on the per capita water consumption of different dwelling types
in Sydney.
References
[Troy et al., 2005] Troy, P., Holloway, D., and Randolph, B. (2005). Water use and the built
environment: patterns of water consumption in Sydney. City Futures Research Report No. 1,
City Futures Research Centre, Faculty of Built Environment, UNSW.
2

Total Annual Consumption (2018/2019) - Period: 1990-2010
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range (%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
463.4
479.8
498.4
7.28
0.00
0.29
CCCMA3.1
R2
465.0
479.0
497.8
6.85
0.00
0.13
CCCMA3.1
R3
464.8
479.7
498.6
7.03
0.00
0.21
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
465.3
479.0
495.7
6.36
0.00
0.13
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
466.9
479.2
491.1
5.05
0.00
-0.05
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
465.9
479.4
491.6
5.36
0.00
-0.14
ECHAM5
R1
461.8
479.5
497.7
7.48
0.00
0.01
ECHAM5
R2
464.4
479.1
495.8
6.56
0.00
0.12
ECHAM5
R3
462.9
479.6
494.5
6.57
0.00
0.01
MIROC3.2
R1
465.6
480.2
496.7
6.47
0.00
0.16
MIROC3.2
R2
463.6
479.4
498.9
7.37
0.00
0.17
MIROC3.2
R3
460.7
479.7
499.7
8.14
0.00
-0.09
Total Annual Consumption (2018/2019) - Period: 2020-2040
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
463.5
484.0
509.4
9.49
0.87
0.30
CCCMA3.1
R2
463.5
484.4
507.5
9.09
1.13
0.27
CCCMA3.1
R3
463.8
484.3
509.8
9.49
0.95
0.25
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
472.7
488.0
503.4
6.30
1.89
0.01
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
471.5
486.0
500.0
5.87
1.43
0.05
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
471.8
487.2
498.9
5.57
1.62
-0.20
ECHAM5
R1
473.0
487.9
505.0
6.55
1.75
0.04
ECHAM5
R2
473.1
488.1
504.1
6.36
1.88
-0.04
ECHAM5
R3
470.7
486.9
505.4
7.13
1.52
-0.05
MIROC3.2
R1
463.3
480.1
502.7
8.21
-0.02
0.21
MIROC3.2
R2
463.5
481.1
501.5
7.89
0.36
-0.03
MIROC3.2
R3
465.7
483.2
500.7
7.25
0.72
-0.03
Total Annual Consumption (2018/2019) - Period: 2060-2080
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
478.2
493.6
509.3
6.31
2.88
-0.17
CCCMA3.1
R2
481.8
494.8
510.6
5.82
3.31
0.18
CCCMA3.1
R3
477.0
493.4
513.9
7.49
2.84
0.36
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
475.6
500.2
528.0
10.49
4.43
0.16
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
475.3
497.1
521.5
9.29
3.74
0.12
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
474.5
494.3
519.7
9.15
3.10
0.32
ECHAM5
R1
476.7
496.3
521.2
8.96
3.49
0.25
ECHAM5
R2
479.3
499.3
525.0
9.15
4.21
0.33
ECHAM5
R3
480.2
497.7
519.8
7.96
3.77
0.06
MIROC3.2
R1
470.0
490.0
512.8
8.74
2.04
0.13
MIROC3.2
R2
471.8
492.5
512.4
8.25
2.73
-0.09
MIROC3.2
R3
471.7
489.2
507.7
7.36
1.99
-0.00
† Range = (Maximum-Minimum)/Median
* Percentage increase of median consumption over 1990-2010 median consumption
3

Total Annual Consumption (2019/2020) - Period: 1990-2010
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range (%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
466.1
484.2
504.6
7.96
0.00
0.09
CCCMA3.1
R2
469.1
485.0
502.8
6.96
0.00
0.04
CCCMA3.1
R3
469.8
485.5
506.5
7.56
0.00
0.42
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
471.3
484.4
503.6
6.67
0.00
0.44
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
472.2
484.5
498.9
5.51
0.00
0.22
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
472.3
484.3
498.4
5.38
0.00
0.26
ECHAM5
R1
469.9
483.8
509.8
8.25
0.00
0.59
ECHAM5
R2
468.0
483.3
507.4
8.15
0.00
0.52
ECHAM5
R3
467.4
484.3
506.5
8.06
0.00
0.25
MIROC3.2
R1
470.9
484.7
500.8
6.17
0.00
0.27
MIROC3.2
R2
468.8
484.3
505.1
7.48
0.00
0.27
MIROC3.2
R3
467.4
485.0
505.7
7.88
0.00
0.18
Total Annual Consumption (2019/2020) - Period: 2020-2040
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
461.3
488.7
514.1
10.80
0.93
-0.13
CCCMA3.1
R2
467.6
488.7
517.0
10.12
0.75
0.16
CCCMA3.1
R3
467.5
489.0
512.9
9.28
0.72
0.11
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
478.8
493.0
510.0
6.32
1.79
0.15
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
475.9
490.9
507.3
6.41
1.32
0.07
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
480.1
492.1
511.4
6.37
1.62
0.43
ECHAM5
R1
477.6
492.9
512.0
6.97
1.90
0.07
ECHAM5
R2
478.5
493.6
508.8
6.14
2.14
-0.01
ECHAM5
R3
478.7
492.5
512.7
6.90
1.69
0.36
MIROC3.2
R1
466.7
484.4
503.0
7.48
-0.06
-0.00
MIROC3.2
R2
471.6
485.6
511.2
8.16
0.27
0.39
MIROC3.2
R3
472.0
487.4
512.1
8.23
0.51
0.33
Total Annual Consumption (2019/2020) - Period: 2060-2080
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
484.9
498.0
519.6
6.96
2.86
0.38
CCCMA3.1
R2
487.0
499.8
515.3
5.66
3.06
0.12
CCCMA3.1
R3
484.0
498.4
517.6
6.74
2.65
0.19
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
485.7
504.3
527.8
8.34
4.12
0.27
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
483.1
500.5
528.8
9.13
3.31
0.37
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
482.1
500.0
523.6
8.31
3.24
0.15
ECHAM5
R1
486.1
502.2
525.6
7.86
3.82
0.33
ECHAM5
R2
481.7
504.6
536.8
10.93
4.42
0.42
ECHAM5
R3
485.9
502.9
527.3
8.24
3.85
0.35
MIROC3.2
R1
478.5
494.9
518.7
8.11
2.10
0.36
MIROC3.2
R2
480.0
497.7
523.5
8.74
2.75
0.34
MIROC3.2
R3
476.5
494.7
519.1
8.62
2.00
0.21
† Range = (Maximum-Minimum)/Median
* Percentage increase of median consumption over 1990-2010 median consumption
4

Total Annual Consumption (2020/2021) - Period: 1990-2010
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range (%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
469.8
487.8
514.5
9.18
0.00
0.52
CCCMA3.1
R2
474.4
488.4
508.6
7.01
0.00
0.43
CCCMA3.1
R3
472.3
488.5
512.6
8.26
0.00
0.57
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
473.8
488.2
507.9
6.99
0.00
0.24
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
476.8
488.8
507.2
6.22
0.00
0.54
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
475.8
488.6
509.0
6.78
0.00
0.59
ECHAM5
R1
474.2
488.0
515.7
8.52
0.00
0.71
ECHAM5
R2
471.3
488.4
518.5
9.68
0.00
0.64
ECHAM5
R3
471.9
488.2
520.5
9.97
0.00
0.76
MIROC3.2
R1
473.5
489.1
513.6
8.19
0.00
0.73
MIROC3.2
R2
471.1
488.2
515.4
9.06
0.00
0.79
MIROC3.2
R3
472.4
488.6
514.4
8.60
0.00
0.57
Total Annual Consumption (2020/2021) - Period: 2020-2040
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
466.8
491.9
522.4
11.29
0.85
0.32
CCCMA3.1
R2
472.7
492.7
527.7
11.16
0.87
0.58
CCCMA3.1
R3
469.8
492.6
522.4
10.68
0.84
0.34
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
482.0
496.8
519.8
7.61
1.76
0.43
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
481.4
496.1
516.2
7.02
1.49
0.57
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
481.4
496.6
514.1
6.58
1.63
0.34
ECHAM5
R1
480.5
497.1
520.6
8.05
1.85
0.50
ECHAM5
R2
481.3
497.3
519.3
7.64
1.81
0.36
ECHAM5
R3
479.8
495.9
524.1
8.94
1.57
0.62
MIROC3.2
R1
470.7
488.2
518.5
9.79
-0.18
0.46
MIROC3.2
R2
471.9
489.9
512.6
8.31
0.34
0.23
MIROC3.2
R3
474.9
491.9
517.7
8.70
0.68
0.38
Total Annual Consumption (2020/2021) - Period: 2060-2080
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
488.6
502.4
522.6
6.77
3.01
0.52
CCCMA3.1
R2
486.5
503.5
523.2
7.28
3.09
0.23
CCCMA3.1
R3
484.1
502.0
521.2
7.39
2.74
0.35
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
484.0
508.4
540.0
11.01
4.13
0.32
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
481.1
505.2
537.7
11.21
3.37
0.68
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
482.8
503.7
537.9
10.95
3.08
0.61
ECHAM5
R1
484.6
505.3
541.0
11.18
3.54
0.58
ECHAM5
R2
486.3
507.9
549.9
12.53
3.98
0.78
ECHAM5
R3
486.2
507.2
541.3
10.87
3.89
0.49
MIROC3.2
R1
481.4
499.4
532.9
10.29
2.09
0.68
MIROC3.2
R2
483.1
501.8
541.0
11.54
2.80
0.87
MIROC3.2
R3
479.5
497.9
536.4
11.43
1.90
0.73
† Range = (Maximum-Minimum)/Median
* Percentage increase of median consumption over 1990-2010 median consumption
5

Total Annual Consumption (2021/2022) - Period: 1990-2010
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range (%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
480.2
494.9
517.4
7.52
0.00
0.34
CCCMA3.1
R2
480.2
494.1
510.4
6.12
0.00
0.09
CCCMA3.1
R3
481.0
495.2
510.9
6.03
0.00
0.07
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
480.2
494.8
509.6
5.93
0.00
-0.03
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
480.7
494.2
507.4
5.41
0.00
-0.04
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
479.0
493.8
507.7
5.80
0.00
-0.17
ECHAM5
R1
477.1
495.2
513.8
7.40
0.00
0.05
ECHAM5
R2
478.8
495.2
520.1
8.35
0.00
0.22
ECHAM5
R3
477.8
495.1
518.5
8.24
0.00
0.13
MIROC3.2
R1
478.7
495.5
512.2
6.77
0.00
-0.11
MIROC3.2
R2
481.0
493.9
511.0
6.08
0.00
0.21
MIROC3.2
R3
478.2
494.6
512.2
6.87
0.00
0.04
Total Annual Consumption (2021/2022) - Period: 2020-2040
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
478.4
499.7
526.3
9.59
0.98
0.22
CCCMA3.1
R2
478.4
500.5
527.2
9.75
1.29
0.23
CCCMA3.1
R3
479.8
500.5
524.9
9.00
1.07
0.21
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
489.0
503.3
519.9
6.14
1.72
0.11
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
484.7
502.1
518.5
6.71
1.59
-0.12
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
489.4
502.4
519.6
6.00
1.75
0.05
ECHAM5
R1
488.7
503.3
520.6
6.35
1.64
0.18
ECHAM5
R2
489.4
503.6
519.6
6.01
1.71
0.01
ECHAM5
R3
486.3
503.8
522.6
7.20
1.75
0.03
MIROC3.2
R1
476.2
495.2
516.3
8.11
-0.05
0.14
MIROC3.2
R2
478.6
496.0
516.0
7.54
0.43
0.17
MIROC3.2
R3
480.9
498.3
514.3
6.70
0.74
-0.02
Total Annual Consumption (2021/2022) - Period: 2060-2080
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
495.7
508.0
522.0
5.19
2.64
0.09
CCCMA3.1
R2
495.4
509.7
525.3
5.86
3.16
-0.00
CCCMA3.1
R3
493.7
508.8
526.0
6.35
2.74
0.14
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
493.4
515.4
537.5
8.56
4.17
0.06
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
495.1
512.5
536.1
8.01
3.70
0.24
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
489.0
510.2
538.6
9.73
3.34
0.21
ECHAM5
R1
491.5
512.5
538.2
9.12
3.51
0.19
ECHAM5
R2
493.4
515.6
545.8
10.16
4.12
0.11
ECHAM5
R3
490.2
513.6
536.9
9.09
3.73
0.03
MIROC3.2
R1
487.8
505.8
527.7
7.90
2.08
0.09
MIROC3.2
R2
488.0
508.8
534.8
9.21
3.02
0.08
MIROC3.2
R3
486.9
505.4
529.3
8.39
2.17
0.09
† Range = (Maximum-Minimum)/Median
* Percentage increase of median consumption over 1990-2010 median consumption
6

Single Dwelling Per Dwelling Annual Consumption - Period: 1990-2010
Model
Run
Min (kL)
Med (kL)
Max (kL)
†Range (%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
210.9
225.6
243.5
14.45
0.00
0.20
CCCMA3.1
R2
212.7
225.4
239.4
11.85
0.00
0.09
CCCMA3.1
R3
212.0
225.6
242.4
13.48
0.00
0.18
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
213.7
225.4
238.9
11.15
0.00
0.09
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
215.2
225.3
238.5
10.37
0.00
0.15
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
214.5
225.4
239.5
11.08
0.00
0.07
ECHAM5
R1
211.6
225.7
243.9
14.31
0.00
0.24
ECHAM5
R2
211.3
225.4
246.0
15.42
0.00
0.32
ECHAM5
R3
211.7
225.5
247.6
15.92
0.00
0.28
MIROC3.2
R1
212.9
225.8
242.6
13.16
0.00
0.21
MIROC3.2
R2
212.1
225.5
243.8
14.05
0.00
0.30
MIROC3.2
R3
210.9
225.7
243.3
14.33
0.00
0.11
Single Dwelling Per Dwelling Annual Consumption - Period: 2020-2040
Model
Run
Min (kL)
Med (kL)
Max (kL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
209.2
228.7
250.8
18.22
1.39
0.11
CCCMA3.1
R2
212.2
229.1
252.5
17.59
1.65
0.22
CCCMA3.1
R3
212.8
229.0
249.1
15.83
1.50
0.12
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
218.0
231.1
246.8
12.47
2.54
0.07
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
216.8
230.1
247.2
13.21
2.13
0.12
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
219.3
230.6
244.9
11.10
2.30
0.09
ECHAM5
R1
217.4
231.2
247.4
12.98
2.44
0.11
ECHAM5
R2
218.6
231.3
246.5
12.06
2.60
0.03
ECHAM5
R3
217.1
230.9
249.7
14.12
2.37
0.14
MIROC3.2
R1
210.9
225.7
245.7
15.44
-0.04
0.15
MIROC3.2
R2
212.3
226.6
243.9
13.98
0.49
0.10
MIROC3.2
R3
214.2
227.7
245.3
13.64
0.87
0.07
Single Dwelling Per Dwelling Annual Consumption - Period: 2060-2080
Model
Run
Min (kL)
Med (kL)
Max (kL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
223.1
234.7
249.9
11.40
4.06
0.12
CCCMA3.1
R2
222.4
235.7
249.2
11.37
4.59
0.08
CCCMA3.1
R3
220.1
234.7
250.2
12.81
4.05
0.08
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
220.9
239.0
261.4
16.96
6.03
0.21
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
219.9
236.9
259.7
16.79
5.15
0.27
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
218.3
235.8
259.3
17.35
4.60
0.24
ECHAM5
R1
220.3
237.2
261.7
17.45
5.11
0.22
ECHAM5
R2
220.8
239.1
268.0
19.77
6.07
0.28
ECHAM5
R3
221.1
237.9
261.8
17.10
5.48
0.19
MIROC3.2
R1
217.1
232.4
255.6
16.60
2.92
0.18
MIROC3.2
R2
218.1
234.3
261.4
18.49
3.91
0.27
MIROC3.2
R3
216.5
232.1
258.1
17.94
2.80
0.18
† Range = (Maximum-Minimum)/Median
* Percentage increase of median consumption over 1990-2010 median consumption
7

Single Dwelling Per Dwelling Q2 Consumption - Period: 1990-2010
Model
Run
Min (kL)
Med (kL)
Max (kL)
†Range (%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
53.3
59.1
65.8
21.09
0.00
0.22
CCCMA3.1
R2
54.5
59.0
65.9
19.25
0.00
0.14
CCCMA3.1
R3
53.6
59.4
64.8
18.81
0.00
0.21
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
55.7
60.4
65.4
16.09
0.00
0.15
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
55.7
60.4
65.9
16.97
0.00
0.12
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
56.0
60.6
65.7
16.09
0.00
0.07
ECHAM5
R1
55.6
60.7
68.4
21.10
0.00
0.28
ECHAM5
R2
55.2
60.3
67.5
20.32
0.00
0.26
ECHAM5
R3
55.7
60.9
67.4
19.35
0.00
0.32
MIROC3.2
R1
56.0
60.8
67.6
19.09
0.00
0.23
MIROC3.2
R2
55.0
60.7
66.6
19.01
0.00
0.19
MIROC3.2
R3
55.3
61.1
67.6
20.15
0.00
0.07
Single Dwelling Per Dwelling Q2 Consumption - Period: 2020-2040
Model
Run
Min (kL)
Med (kL)
Max (kL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
54.6
60.8
68.7
23.21
2.90
0.14
CCCMA3.1
R2
54.5
60.6
67.7
21.79
2.61
0.19
CCCMA3.1
R3
55.6
61.4
68.5
21.04
3.50
0.13
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
55.3
61.6
68.1
20.82
1.96
0.09
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
56.4
61.7
68.3
19.32
2.19
0.16
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
57.0
61.5
66.6
15.70
1.52
0.17
ECHAM5
R1
57.4
62.7
68.7
17.95
3.30
0.14
ECHAM5
R2
56.3
62.2
67.6
18.11
3.06
0.07
ECHAM5
R3
57.1
62.6
68.9
18.81
2.87
0.14
MIROC3.2
R1
55.4
61.0
67.9
20.57
0.27
0.18
MIROC3.2
R2
55.7
60.9
67.4
19.13
0.35
0.14
MIROC3.2
R3
55.7
61.6
67.8
19.72
0.84
0.17
Single Dwelling Per Dwelling Q2 Consumption - Period: 2060-2080
Model
Run
Min (kL)
Med (kL)
Max (kL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
57.7
62.5
69.3
18.48
5.82
0.20
CCCMA3.1
R2
57.4
62.5
68.5
17.67
5.99
0.15
CCCMA3.1
R3
57.9
62.9
69.6
18.62
6.00
0.06
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
59.0
65.0
73.1
21.71
7.58
0.23
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
57.2
64.4
73.5
25.33
6.67
0.25
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
58.1
64.1
71.7
21.24
5.76
0.25
ECHAM5
R1
59.4
65.6
72.7
20.40
8.17
0.18
ECHAM5
R2
58.5
65.5
74.3
24.02
8.60
0.28
ECHAM5
R3
59.3
65.7
74.3
22.86
7.98
0.19
MIROC3.2
R1
57.3
63.0
70.3
20.68
3.66
0.20
MIROC3.2
R2
56.3
63.8
72.1
24.76
5.08
0.23
MIROC3.2
R3
56.9
63.4
71.4
22.93
3.83
0.18
† Range = (Maximum-Minimum)/Median
* Percentage increase of median consumption over 1990-2010 median consumption
8

Total Annual Consumption (2019/2020) - Period: 1990-2010 - No Single Dwellings
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range (%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
473.4
482.8
493.4
4.14
0.00
0.04
CCCMA3.1
R2
475.2
483.4
491.7
3.41
0.00
-0.02
CCCMA3.1
R3
475.7
483.5
493.8
3.73
0.00
0.37
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
476.7
483.0
492.4
3.26
0.00
0.44
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
476.6
483.1
490.6
2.89
0.00
0.20
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
477.0
483.1
490.5
2.79
0.00
0.26
ECHAM5
R1
475.7
482.7
495.8
4.16
0.00
0.53
ECHAM5
R2
474.6
482.6
494.3
4.09
0.00
0.45
ECHAM5
R3
474.0
482.9
494.3
4.20
0.00
0.20
MIROC3.2
R1
475.7
483.2
491.4
3.24
0.00
0.21
MIROC3.2
R2
475.0
483.0
493.6
3.85
0.00
0.22
MIROC3.2
R3
474.2
483.2
493.6
4.02
0.00
0.13
Total Annual Consumption (2019/2020) - Period: 2020-2040 - No Single Dwellings
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
470.8
485.1
497.0
5.40
0.48
-0.22
CCCMA3.1
R2
474.1
485.2
499.3
5.18
0.39
0.11
CCCMA3.1
R3
474.0
485.1
496.8
4.70
0.34
0.03
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
480.9
487.4
495.5
2.99
0.91
0.12
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
478.8
486.4
494.2
3.17
0.69
0.02
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
481.4
487.1
496.3
3.04
0.84
0.45
ECHAM5
R1
479.5
487.2
496.3
3.44
0.95
0.03
ECHAM5
R2
480.1
487.6
494.8
3.01
1.04
-0.02
ECHAM5
R3
480.0
487.2
497.2
3.53
0.88
0.32
MIROC3.2
R1
473.7
483.1
492.6
3.90
-0.02
-0.06
MIROC3.2
R2
476.6
483.9
496.3
4.08
0.18
0.35
MIROC3.2
R3
477.3
484.7
496.7
3.99
0.32
0.31
Total Annual Consumption (2019/2020) - Period: 2060-2080 - No Single Dwellings
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
484.1
489.9
499.8
3.21
1.46
0.33
CCCMA3.1
R2
484.6
490.6
497.8
2.69
1.51
0.07
CCCMA3.1
R3
483.0
490.0
499.2
3.32
1.34
0.14
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
483.9
492.9
504.0
4.09
2.03
0.22
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
483.0
491.1
504.7
4.43
1.65
0.32
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
481.8
490.9
502.3
4.17
1.63
0.08
ECHAM5
R1
484.1
492.0
503.0
3.86
1.94
0.27
ECHAM5
R2
481.5
493.2
508.3
5.43
2.19
0.37
ECHAM5
R3
484.2
492.4
503.9
4.01
1.96
0.30
MIROC3.2
R1
480.2
488.9
500.6
4.16
1.18
0.30
MIROC3.2
R2
481.2
489.9
502.0
4.23
1.43
0.28
MIROC3.2
R3
479.1
488.2
500.4
4.37
1.04
0.16
† Range = (Maximum-Minimum)/Median
* Percentage increase of median consumption over 1990-2010 median consumption
9

Total Annual Consumption (2019/2020) - Period: 1990-2010 - All Single Dwellings
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range (%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
462.3
484.3
509.1
9.67
0.00
0.10
CCCMA3.1
R2
465.7
485.3
507.3
8.57
0.00
0.05
CCCMA3.1
R3
466.6
485.8
511.7
9.28
0.00
0.43
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
468.3
484.5
508.1
8.20
0.00
0.44
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
469.7
484.6
502.0
6.66
0.00
0.23
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
469.7
484.3
501.2
6.50
0.00
0.26
ECHAM5
R1
466.9
483.7
515.6
10.07
0.00
0.61
ECHAM5
R2
464.5
482.9
512.7
9.98
0.00
0.54
ECHAM5
R3
464.0
484.4
511.3
9.77
0.00
0.26
MIROC3.2
R1
468.2
484.9
504.4
7.47
0.00
0.28
MIROC3.2
R2
465.5
484.4
509.6
9.10
0.00
0.28
MIROC3.2
R3
463.9
485.2
510.5
9.60
0.00
0.19
Total Annual Consumption (2019/2020) - Period: 2020-2040 - All Single Dwellings
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
456.4
489.6
521.2
13.23
1.09
-0.11
CCCMA3.1
R2
464.0
489.6
524.3
12.32
0.89
0.17
CCCMA3.1
R3
463.9
490.1
519.4
11.33
0.89
0.12
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
477.2
494.9
515.9
7.82
2.14
0.15
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
473.8
492.2
512.6
7.88
1.57
0.07
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
478.8
493.7
517.6
7.87
1.94
0.43
ECHAM5
R1
476.1
494.9
518.4
8.56
2.30
0.08
ECHAM5
R2
477.2
495.6
514.5
7.54
2.62
-0.00
ECHAM5
R3
477.4
494.2
519.1
8.44
2.02
0.36
MIROC3.2
R1
462.9
484.4
507.3
9.15
-0.09
0.01
MIROC3.2
R2
468.6
485.8
517.3
10.03
0.29
0.39
MIROC3.2
R3
468.9
488.2
518.4
10.13
0.61
0.33
Total Annual Consumption (2019/2020) - Period: 2060-2080 - All Single Dwellings
Model
Run
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
CCCMA3.1
R1
484.5
500.9
527.7
8.64
3.44
0.39
CCCMA3.1
R2
487.1
503.3
522.4
7.01
3.70
0.12
CCCMA3.1
R3
483.7
501.4
525.1
8.27
3.21
0.20
CSIRO-MK3.0
R1
485.8
508.6
537.6
10.18
4.98
0.28
CSIRO-MK3.0
R2
482.5
504.1
538.8
11.18
4.01
0.38
CSIRO-MK3.0
R3
481.4
503.2
532.3
10.12
3.90
0.16
ECHAM5
R1
486.0
506.0
535.0
9.69
4.60
0.33
ECHAM5
R2
480.9
508.9
548.8
13.35
5.38
0.43
ECHAM5
R3
485.8
506.8
537.0
10.10
4.61
0.36
MIROC3.2
R1
476.9
496.7
525.9
9.85
2.43
0.37
MIROC3.2
R2
478.5
500.2
532.3
10.75
3.26
0.35
MIROC3.2
R3
474.3
496.6
526.6
10.53
2.35
0.22
† Range = (Maximum-Minimum)/Median
* Percentage increase of median consumption over 1990-2010 median consumption
10

Total Annual Consumption - Period: 1990-2010 - All models
Period
Fin Year
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range (%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
1990-2010
2015
439.3
457.1
482.9
9.54
0.00
0.32
1990-2010
2016
446.8
462.1
482.0
7.63
0.00
0.07
1990-2010
2017
450.4
470.9
496.3
9.74
0.00
0.37
1990-2010
2018
454.0
475.7
499.9
9.65
0.00
0.10
1990-2010
2019
460.7
479.4
499.7
8.14
0.00
0.09
1990-2010
2020
466.1
484.3
509.8
9.04
0.00
0.29
1990-2010
2021
469.8
488.4
520.5
10.39
0.00
0.65
1990-2010
2022
477.1
494.6
520.1
8.69
0.00
0.11
1990-2010
2023
481.0
500.2
526.0
8.98
0.00
0.31
1990-2010
2024
485.9
504.5
526.5
8.06
0.00
0.14
1990-2010
2025
486.1
507.6
528.9
8.44
0.00
0.07
Total Annual Consumption - Period: 2020-2040 - All models
Period
Fin Year
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
2020-2040
2015
437.0
462.6
490.9
11.64
1.22
0.04
2020-2040
2016
443.2
467.3
486.9
9.34
1.14
-0.12
2020-2040
2017
453.1
476.8
502.5
10.36
1.25
0.09
2020-2040
2018
458.1
481.8
505.4
9.83
1.28
-0.03
2020-2040
2019
463.3
485.0
509.8
9.59
1.17
-0.04
2020-2040
2020
461.3
490.2
517.0
11.36
1.21
-0.10
2020-2040
2021
466.8
494.2
527.7
12.32
1.20
0.21
2020-2040
2022
476.2
500.6
527.2
10.19
1.21
-0.03
2020-2040
2023
480.5
505.9
536.6
11.09
1.14
0.05
2020-2040
2024
485.4
510.9
534.9
9.69
1.27
-0.13
2020-2040
2025
487.5
514.5
536.3
9.49
1.36
-0.23
Total Annual Consumption - Period: 2060-2080 - All models
Period
Fin Year
Min (GL)
Med (GL)
Max (GL)
†Range(%)
*Inc (%)
Skew
2060-2080
2015
448.5
471.2
509.7
13.01
3.10
0.35
2060-2080
2016
454.4
476.7
500.4
9.65
3.16
0.14
2060-2080
2017
460.7
486.6
526.6
13.54
3.32
0.41
2060-2080
2018
464.0
491.3
520.3
11.47
3.27
0.24
2060-2080
2019
470.0
494.7
528.0
11.73
3.20
0.24
2060-2080
2020
476.5
499.6
536.8
12.09
3.15
0.37
2060-2080
2021
479.5
503.8
549.9
13.98
3.17
0.66
2060-2080
2022
486.9
510.8
545.8
11.52
3.27
0.22
2060-2080
2023
490.2
515.7
552.1
12.00
3.09
0.35
2060-2080
2024
496.4
520.6
553.1
10.89
3.19
0.11
2060-2080
2025
495.7
524.2
550.7
10.50
3.26
0.05
† Range = (Maximum-Minimum)/Median
* Percentage increase of median consumption over 1990-2010 median consumption
11

All Segments - Annual Consumption (2019/20)
540
530
520
510
500
490
480
Consumption Forecast (GL) 470
460
1990-2010
2020-2040
2060-2080
Single Dwelling Per Dwelling - Annual Consumption
270
260
250
240
230
220
Consumption Forecast (kL)
210
1990-2010
2020-2040
2060-2080
Single Dwelling Per Dwelling - Q2 Consumption
75
70
65
60
Consumption Forecast (kL)
55
1990-2010
2020-2040
2060-2080
Figure 1: Consumption forecasts by model, (CCCMA3.1 - red, CSIRO-MK3.0 - green, ECHAM5
- blue and MIROC3.2 - orange).
12

All Segments - Annual Consumption
540
520
500
480
460
Consumption Forecast (GL)
440
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Figure 2: Consumption forecasts by year, (1990-2010 - red, 2020-2040 - green, 2060-2080 - blue).
13

NARCliM - 1990-2010
580
560
540
520
500
480
460
440
Consumption Forecast (GL) 420
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
NARCliM - 2020-2040
580
560
540
520
500
480
460
440
Consumption Forecast (GL) 420
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
NARCliM - 2060-2080
580
560
540
520
500
480
460
440
Consumption Forecast (GL) 420
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
Figure 3: Consumption forecasts where there are no single dwellings (red) and the current
mixture (green) and where all properties are single dwellings (blue).
14

Single Dwelling (Annual)
Unit (Annual)
200
220
240
260
280
150
155
160
165
170
kL
kL
Single Dwelling (Q1)
Unit (Q1)
50
60
70
38
40
42
44
kL
kL
Single Dwelling (Q2)
Unit (Q2)
50
60
70
38
40
42
44
kL
kL
Single Dwelling (Q3)
Unit (Q3)
50
60
70
38
40
42
44
kL
kL
Single Dwelling (Q4)
Unit (Q4)
50
60
70
38
40
42
44
kL
kL
Figure 4: Kernel density approximation of annual and quarterly per dwelling consumption
forecasts of single dwellings and units, (1990-2010 - red, 2020-2040 - green, 2060-2080 - blue) .
15

(a)
450
viation
350
250
standard de
150
800
900
1000
1100
1200
20
(b)
18
16
viation
14
12
standard de
10
8
70
75
80
0.8
(c)
0.7
viation
0.6
0.5
standard de
0.4
22.5
23.0
23.5
24.0
24.5
16
(d)
14
viation
12
10
standard de
8
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Figure 5: Plots of annual standard deviation vs annual mean of weather variables for each of
the NARCliM ensemble members. (CCCMA3.1 - square, CSIRO-MK3.0 - circle, ECHAM5 -
triangle and MIROC3.2 - diamond), (1990-2010 - red, 2020-2040 - green, 2060-2080 - blue).
Subplot (a) Precipitation (mm), (b) No. Days > 2mm, (c) Maximum Temperature (◦C) and
(d) No. Days > 30◦C.
16

60
(a)
50
40
Range (GL)
30
20
480
485
490
495
500
505
50
(b)
45
40
35
Range (kL)
30
25
20
225
230
235
240
(c)
16
14
12
Range (kL)
10
8
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
Figure 6: Plots of range vs median consumption for each of the NARCliM ensemble members.
(CCCMA3.1 - square, CSIRO-MK3.0 - circle, ECHAM5 - triangle and MIROC3.2 - diamond),
(Present - red, Near Future - green, Far Future - blue). Subplot (a) Total Annual (2019/20),
(b) Single Dwelling Per Dwelling Annual and (c) Single Dwelling Per Dwelling Q2.
17

(a) 2018/19
60
50
40
Range (GL)
30
20
480
490
500
510
(b) 2019/20
60
50
40
Range (GL)
30
20
480
490
500
510
(c) 2020/21
60
50
40
Range (GL)
30
20
480
490
500
510
(d) 2021/22
60
50
40
Range (GL)
30
20
480
490
500
510
Figure 7: Plots of range vs median total annual consumption for each of the NARCliM ensemble
members. (CCCMA3.1 - square, CSIRO-MK3.0 - circle, ECHAM5 - triangle and MIROC3.2
- diamond), (Present - red, Near Future - green, Far Future - blue). Subplot (a) 2018/19, (b)
2019/20, (c) 2020/21 and (d) 2021/22.
18

All Segments - Annual Consumption
540
520
500
480
460
Consumption Forecast (GL)
440
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Single Dwellings Per Dwelling - Annual Consumption
270
260
250
240
230
Consumption Forecast (kL)
220
210
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Single Dwellings Per Dwelling - Q2 Consumption
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
Consumption Forecast (kL)
58
56
54
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Figure 8: Consumption forecasts by year, (1990-2010 - red, 2020-2040 - green, 2060-2080 - blue).
19

All Segments - Annual Consumption
540
520
500
480
Consumption Forecast (GL) 460
440
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Single Dwellings - Annual Consumption
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
Consumption Forecast (GL)
230
220
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Other Residential - Annual Consumption
135
130
125
120
115
Consumption Forecast (GL)
110
105
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Non Residential - Annual Consumption
124
122
120
118
116
Consumption Forecast (GL)
114
112
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Figure 9: Consumption forecasts by year, (1990-2010 - red, 2020-2040 - green, 2060-2080 - blue).
20

All Segments - Annual Consumption (2019/20)
540
530
520
510
500
490
480
Consumption Forecast (GL) 470
460
1990-2010
2020-2040
2060-2080
All Segments - Annual Consumption (2019/20), No Single Dwellings
510
505
500
495
490
485
Consumption Forecast (GL)
480
475
470
1990-2010
2020-2040
2060-2080
All Segments - Annual Consumption (2019/20), All Single Dwellings
550
540
530
520
510
500
490
Consumption Forecast (GL) 480
470
460
1990-2010
2020-2040
2060-2080
Figure 10:
Consumption forecasts by model, (CCCMA3.1 - red, CSIRO-MK3.0 - green,
ECHAM5 - blue and MIROC3.2 - orange)). Comparison of forecasts where there are no single
dwellings and all properties are single dwellings with the actual mixture.
21

All Segments - Annual Consumption
540
520
500
480
460
Consumption Forecast (GL)
440
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
All Segments - Annual Consumption, No Single Dwellings
520
510
500
490
480
Consumption Forecast (GL) 470
460
450
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
All Segments - Annual Consumption, All Single Dwellings
560
540
520
500
480
Consumption Forecast (GL)
460
440
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Figure 11: Consumption forecasts by year, (1990-2010 - red, 2020-2040 - green, 2060-2080 -
blue). Comparison of forecasts where there are no single dwellings and all properties are single
dwellings with the actual mixture.
22

All Segments - Annual Consumption, No Single Dwellings
520
510
500
490
480
Consumption Forecast (GL) 470
460
450
1990-2010
2020-2040
2060-2080
All Segments - Annual Consumption, All Single Dwellings
560
540
520
500
480
Consumption Forecast (GL)
460
440
1990-2010
2020-2040
2060-2080
Figure 12: Consumption forecasts by year, (1990-2010 - red, 2020-2040 - green, 2060-2080 -
blue). Comparison of forecasts where there are no single dwellings and all properties are single
dwellings.
23

NARCliM - 1990-2010
3
2
1
0
(GL) -1
-2
-3
-4
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
NARCliM - 2020-2040
4
2
0
-2
(GL)
-4
-6
-8
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
NARCliM - 2060-2080
5
0
-5
(GL)
-10
-15
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
Figure 13: Difference between the median consumption forecast where there are no single
dwellings and the current mixture (red) and between consumption forecasts where all prop-
erties are single dwellings and the current mixture (blue).
24

Single Dwelling Annual
Single Dwelling Q2
1990-2010
1990-2010
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
50
55
60
65
70
75
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Single Dwelling Annual
Single Dwelling Q2
2020-2040
2020-2040
1000
1200
800
1000
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
50
55
60
65
70
75
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Single Dwelling Annual
Single Dwelling Q2
2060-2080
2060-2080
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
50
55
60
65
70
75
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Figure 14: Histogram of Single Dwelling Annual and Single Dwelling Q2 consumption forecasts
per dwelling from each NARCliM period.
25

Single Dwelling Annual
Unit Annual
1990-2010
1990-2010
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
150
155
160
165
170
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Single Dwelling Annual
Unit Annual
2020-2040
2020-2040
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
150
155
160
165
170
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Single Dwelling Annual
Unit Annual
2060-2080
2060-2080
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
150
155
160
165
170
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Figure 15: Histogram of Single Dwelling Annual and Unit Annual consumption forecasts per
dwelling from each NARCliM period.
26

Single Dwelling Q1
Single Dwelling Q2
2060-2080
2060-2080
2000
1200
1000
1500
800
1000
600
400
500
200
0
0
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Single Dwelling Q3
Single Dwelling Q4
2060-2080
2060-2080
1000
2000
800
1500
600
1000
400
500
200
0
0
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Unit Q1
Unit Q2
2060-2080
2060-2080
1500
1200
1000
1000
800
600
500
400
200
0
0
38
40
42
44
38
40
42
44
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Unit Q3
Unit Q4
2060-2080
2060-2080
1000
1200
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
38
40
42
44
38
40
42
44
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Consumption Forecast (kL)
Figure 16: Histogram of Single Dwelling and Unit Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 consumption forecasts
per dwelling from the 2060-2080 NARCliM period.
27

All Segments 2019/20 Forecast - All Segments 2018/19 Forecast
40
30
20
10
0
Consumption Forecast (GL) -10
-20
-30
1990-2010
2020-2040
2060-2080
Figure 17: Box plot of the difference between consumption forecasts for consecutive financial
years 2019/20 and 2018/19. Median forecast difference is positive due to population increase.
28